Market data not licensed for redistribution.
Historical price reaction by filing type
Each row shows how stocks did compared with the market (KOSPI or KOSDAQ) after one type of filing, Jan 2023 to Oct 2026. Numbers are % better (+) or worse (-) than the market. "Usual" is the middle case. Past results, not a prediction.
How we calculate
KOSPI and KOSDAQ filings, Jan 2023-Oct 2026. Market-adjusted = stock return minus the KOSPI or KOSDAQ index over the identical window, in %. Hit = share of events with a positive market-adjusted return.
| Filing type | Market | Cases | On the news (avg) | Next day (avg) | Next day (usual) | Next day: beat market | 5 days (avg) | 5 days (usual) | 20 days (avg) | 20 days (usual) | 20 days: beat market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus issue (stock dividend) | KOSDAQ | 151 | +7.26 | +0.34 | +0.00 | 50% | +2.33 | +1.74 | +7.22 | -0.97 | 47% |
| Bonus issue (stock dividend) | KOSPI | 49 | +4.33 | +1.02 | +0.19 | 55% | +1.14 | +1.09 | +2.78 | +1.69 | 64% |
| Combined rights + bonus issue | KOSDAQ | 36 | -11.10 | -0.06 | -0.26 | 44% | +1.57 | -1.55 | +4.20 | -1.33 | 47% |
| Business / production suspension | KOSDAQ | 92 | -1.38 | -0.91 | -0.82 | 39% | +0.34 | -2.02 | -0.47 | -2.94 | 35% |
| Business / production suspension | KOSPI | 213 | -0.98 | -0.08 | -0.12 | 47% | -0.35 | -0.31 | -2.25 | -2.66 | 39% |
| Share buyback decision | KOSDAQ | 426 | +4.10 | +1.42 | +1.26 | 65% | +2.66 | +1.95 | +2.96 | +2.16 | 58% |
| Share buyback decision | KOSPI | 400 | +2.36 | +0.72 | +0.55 | 60% | +1.37 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.16 | 51% |
| Capital reduction | KOSDAQ | 171 | -6.89 | -2.71 | -1.47 | 35% | -1.41 | -2.15 | -3.61 | -4.10 | 37% |
| Capital reduction | KOSPI | 151 | -1.09 | -0.42 | -0.70 | 41% | -2.49 | -2.27 | -2.01 | -3.94 | 34% |
| Convertible bond issuance | KOSDAQ | 1,141 | +1.45 | -0.60 | -0.79 | 39% | +0.56 | -1.68 | -0.04 | -4.97 | 36% |
| Convertible bond issuance | KOSPI | 174 | +1.11 | -0.07 | -0.39 | 43% | +0.56 | -1.79 | -2.48 | -5.52 | 37% |
| Clinical trial / regulatory approval | KOSDAQ | 694 | +1.03 | -0.85 | -0.90 | 36% | -2.02 | -2.57 | -2.67 | -4.55 | 37% |
| Clinical trial / regulatory approval | KOSPI | 204 | +0.91 | -0.19 | -0.27 | 46% | -1.05 | -0.95 | -2.27 | -2.50 | 39% |
| Share sale agreement entailing change of control | KOSDAQ | 269 | +6.21 | -4.71 | -3.43 | 25% | -2.40 | -6.46 | -2.93 | -11.27 | 30% |
| Termination of change-of-control share sale | KOSDAQ | 39 | -4.50 | -0.86 | -1.85 | 31% | -2.00 | -4.64 | -7.84 | -9.45 | 29% |
| Delisting / administrative issue designation | KOSDAQ | 553 | -13.65 | -2.56 | -1.73 | 35% | -9.70 | -4.70 | -12.99 | -8.44 | 34% |
| Delisting / administrative issue designation | KOSPI | 175 | -8.12 | -0.05 | -0.42 | 43% | -2.40 | -0.89 | -6.63 | -4.49 | 34% |
| Preliminary earnings | KOSDAQ | 2,390 | +0.79 | -0.35 | -0.53 | 43% | -0.50 | -1.12 | -0.49 | -2.43 | 39% |
| Preliminary earnings | KOSPI | 4,796 | +0.34 | -0.41 | -0.47 | 43% | -0.82 | -0.99 | -2.34 | -2.42 | 40% |
| Embezzlement / breach of trust | KOSDAQ | 80 | -0.40 | +0.46 | -0.46 | 42% | -2.24 | -1.47 | -3.97 | -3.74 | 36% |
| Embezzlement / breach of trust | KOSPI | 82 | -0.55 | +0.30 | -0.00 | 50% | +0.83 | -0.42 | +0.61 | -1.73 | 42% |
| Change of largest shareholder | KOSDAQ | 487 | +1.60 | -1.35 | -1.06 | 40% | -4.07 | -3.64 | -6.01 | -7.83 | 32% |
| Change of largest shareholder | KOSPI | 153 | +0.55 | -1.08 | -0.50 | 42% | -2.74 | -2.85 | -5.75 | -4.53 | 41% |
| Merger | KOSDAQ | 319 | +0.64 | +0.03 | -0.18 | 47% | -1.15 | -1.29 | -0.36 | -4.44 | 37% |
| Merger | KOSPI | 217 | +0.97 | -0.13 | -0.10 | 48% | -0.43 | -0.64 | -1.92 | -3.10 | 35% |
| Court rehabilitation / bankruptcy filing | KOSDAQ | 104 | -2.74 | -1.27 | -1.67 | 36% | -0.03 | -2.55 | -5.35 | -7.66 | 35% |
| Court rehabilitation / bankruptcy filing | KOSPI | 39 | -6.57 | -1.58 | -1.18 | 41% | -6.91 | -5.14 | -13.11 | -9.66 | 26% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) | KOSDAQ | 1,385 | +1.83 | -1.60 | -1.29 | 38% | -0.65 | -2.54 | -1.16 | -5.66 | 36% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) | KOSPI | 586 | +0.33 | -0.52 | -0.36 | 42% | -0.32 | -1.17 | -1.17 | -3.94 | 34% |
| Share exchange / transfer | KOSDAQ | 23 | +1.41 | -0.29 | +0.57 | 57% | -1.72 | -0.65 | -4.62 | -5.41 | 33% |
| Share exchange / transfer | KOSPI | 60 | +1.88 | +0.29 | +0.07 | 52% | -0.31 | -0.40 | -5.70 | -2.74 | 33% |
| Corporate split / spin-off | KOSDAQ | 43 | +1.63 | +2.48 | +1.35 | 58% | +5.54 | -0.92 | +7.94 | -1.52 | 44% |
| Corporate split / spin-off | KOSPI | 51 | +1.73 | +1.12 | +0.73 | 57% | -0.32 | -0.50 | +1.01 | -1.61 | 39% |
| Single sales/supply contract | KOSDAQ | 3,044 | +1.94 | -0.55 | -0.81 | 39% | -0.80 | -1.82 | -1.35 | -3.95 | 37% |
| Single sales/supply contract | KOSPI | 3,058 | +0.83 | -0.20 | -0.36 | 43% | -0.33 | -1.03 | -0.60 | -2.47 | 41% |
| Supply contract termination | KOSDAQ | 103 | -1.52 | -0.14 | -0.49 | 40% | -1.19 | -2.06 | -3.12 | -3.29 | 38% |
| Supply contract termination | KOSPI | 141 | -1.10 | -0.36 | -0.34 | 45% | -1.31 | -1.19 | -3.36 | -3.67 | 34% |
| Technology licensing / alliance | KOSDAQ | 71 | +5.78 | -1.11 | -1.29 | 38% | -0.12 | -5.13 | -3.58 | -8.83 | 31% |
| Technology licensing / alliance | KOSPI | 15 | +4.94 | +0.07 | -1.51 | 33% | -1.60 | -2.05 | -8.09 | -9.57 | 20% |
| Tender offer | KOSDAQ | 59 | +7.71 | +0.89 | +0.26 | 54% | +1.50 | -0.62 | -3.02 | -3.64 | 42% |
| Tender offer | KOSPI | 52 | +6.29 | -0.53 | -0.67 | 35% | -2.13 | -2.25 | -5.25 | -5.36 | 30% |
| Trading halt | KOSDAQ | 936 | -0.70 | -1.30 | -1.15 | 39% | -1.31 | -1.56 | -3.02 | -5.87 | 35% |
| Trading halt | KOSPI | 206 | +0.40 | +0.76 | +0.11 | 51% | -0.67 | -1.15 | -1.15 | -3.06 | 39% |
| Share cancellation | KOSDAQ | 553 | +1.95 | -0.18 | -0.28 | 45% | -0.84 | -1.50 | -0.16 | -2.44 | 42% |
| Share cancellation | KOSPI | 549 | +1.61 | -0.40 | -0.44 | 42% | -0.63 | -1.25 | -2.34 | -2.85 | 40% |
| Tangible asset / business transfer | KOSDAQ | 745 | +0.77 | -0.56 | -0.44 | 44% | -1.18 | -2.05 | -1.93 | -4.88 | 35% |
| Tangible asset / business transfer | KOSPI | 378 | +0.41 | -0.53 | -0.41 | 43% | -1.49 | -1.53 | -2.37 | -3.35 | 39% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract | KOSDAQ | 788 | +3.06 | +0.87 | +0.69 | 59% | +2.32 | +1.87 | +4.32 | +2.72 | 60% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract | KOSPI | 380 | +2.33 | +0.80 | +0.49 | 58% | +1.73 | +0.74 | +1.83 | +0.66 | 53% |
| BW/EB issuance | KOSDAQ | 249 | +1.28 | -0.11 | -0.19 | 46% | +0.68 | -0.88 | -0.27 | -5.36 | 34% |
| BW/EB issuance | KOSPI | 105 | +0.15 | -1.40 | -1.27 | 32% | -0.64 | -1.54 | -4.82 | -5.58 | 30% |
| Warning: possible administrative-issue designation | KOSDAQ | 191 | -1.91 | -0.16 | -0.62 | 44% | -3.28 | -5.96 | -4.62 | -5.97 | 35% |
| Warning: possible administrative-issue designation | KOSPI | 105 | -0.21 | -0.24 | -0.08 | 48% | -1.28 | -1.78 | -8.44 | -6.64 | 31% |
| Cash/stock dividend decision | KOSDAQ | 2,722 | +0.48 | -0.20 | -0.42 | 43% | -0.62 | -1.45 | -0.42 | -2.46 | 41% |
| Cash/stock dividend decision | KOSPI | 3,263 | +0.27 | -0.23 | -0.30 | 44% | -0.55 | -0.96 | -0.98 | -2.26 | 39% |
| Revenue/profit change >=30% (15% large caps) | KOSDAQ | 5,590 | +0.38 | -0.40 | -0.61 | 40% | -1.11 | -2.02 | -1.38 | -4.64 | 35% |
| Revenue/profit change >=30% (15% large caps) | KOSPI | 3,099 | +0.29 | -0.27 | -0.32 | 43% | -0.70 | -1.36 | -1.50 | -3.41 | 34% |
| Earnings outlook / guidance | KOSDAQ | 139 | +0.61 | -0.49 | -0.32 | 42% | -1.35 | -1.80 | -1.80 | -4.36 | 34% |
| Earnings outlook / guidance | KOSPI | 351 | +0.61 | -0.34 | -0.63 | 43% | -0.27 | -0.87 | +0.34 | -1.79 | 43% |
| Acquisition of shares in another company | KOSDAQ | 1,211 | +0.64 | -0.39 | -0.51 | 43% | -0.57 | -1.86 | -2.12 | -4.78 | 35% |
| Acquisition of shares in another company | KOSPI | 922 | +0.46 | -0.28 | -0.26 | 44% | -1.23 | -1.45 | -2.43 | -3.32 | 37% |
| Disposal of shares in another company | KOSDAQ | 326 | +1.45 | -0.52 | -0.52 | 43% | -1.32 | -1.87 | -3.70 | -5.38 | 35% |
| Disposal of shares in another company | KOSPI | 266 | +0.54 | -0.32 | -0.37 | 45% | -1.47 | -1.57 | -3.86 | -3.99 | 36% |
| New facility investment | KOSDAQ | 238 | +2.41 | -0.49 | -0.70 | 38% | -1.34 | -1.68 | -0.27 | -2.42 | 42% |
| New facility investment | KOSPI | 209 | +0.61 | -0.34 | -0.35 | 43% | -1.77 | -1.21 | -3.71 | -4.06 | 33% |
| Other material event (investment-relevant) | KOSDAQ | 1,285 | +0.54 | -0.92 | -0.79 | 40% | -1.45 | -2.31 | -3.01 | -5.65 | 37% |
| Other material event (investment-relevant) | KOSPI | 2,509 | +0.57 | -0.42 | -0.43 | 41% | -0.99 | -1.07 | -2.92 | -3.14 | 37% |
| Litigation | KOSDAQ | 1,467 | -0.12 | -0.42 | -0.75 | 40% | -0.56 | -1.82 | -2.80 | -4.96 | 36% |
| Litigation | KOSPI | 778 | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.34 | 43% | -1.22 | -1.82 | -2.44 | -4.53 | 33% |
| Clarification of rumor / inquiry | KOSDAQ | 793 | +0.88 | -1.94 | -1.77 | 37% | -3.43 | -4.42 | -8.14 | -11.55 | 30% |
| Clarification of rumor / inquiry | KOSPI | 1,447 | +0.50 | -0.41 | -0.42 | 43% | -1.91 | -1.63 | -3.37 | -3.98 | 36% |
| Stock split / reverse split | KOSDAQ | 314 | +0.01 | -0.73 | -1.28 | 41% | -0.08 | -2.36 | +3.08 | -0.63 | 48% |
| Stock split / reverse split | KOSPI | 94 | +1.79 | -1.23 | -0.85 | 36% | -1.51 | -2.00 | -0.16 | -3.00 | 39% |
| Trading resumption | KOSDAQ | 527 | -8.95 | -4.08 | -6.00 | 29% | -12.09 | -12.27 | -13.47 | -13.96 | 26% |
| Treasury-stock disposal | KOSDAQ | 1,062 | +0.13 | -0.45 | -0.46 | 42% | -0.85 | -1.43 | -1.70 | -4.08 | 36% |
| Treasury-stock disposal | KOSPI | 710 | +0.03 | -0.59 | -0.47 | 40% | -1.47 | -1.40 | -4.24 | -4.03 | 35% |
| Unfaithful-disclosure notice | KOSDAQ | 412 | -1.01 | -1.37 | -1.11 | 38% | -2.61 | -2.77 | -4.99 | -6.68 | 31% |
| Unfaithful-disclosure notice | KOSPI | 155 | -0.83 | -0.63 | -0.40 | 39% | -1.08 | -0.88 | -2.34 | -3.06 | 39% |
| Corporate value-up plan | KOSDAQ | 484 | +0.63 | +0.35 | +0.16 | 52% | +1.71 | +1.53 | +3.61 | +0.30 | 53% |
| Corporate value-up plan | KOSPI | 593 | +0.60 | +0.31 | +0.10 | 52% | -0.48 | -0.66 | -6.39 | -6.37 | 32% |
| Shareholder meeting | KOSDAQ | 26,926 | +0.12 | -0.05 | -0.28 | 45% | +0.17 | -0.69 | +0.74 | -2.07 | 43% |
| Shareholder meeting | KOSPI | 12,341 | +0.17 | -0.08 | -0.17 | 46% | -0.30 | -0.79 | -1.89 | -2.89 | 38% |
| Audit report submission | KOSDAQ | 6,390 | +0.31 | +0.17 | -0.14 | 48% | +0.36 | -0.68 | +2.85 | -0.04 | 50% |
| Audit report submission | KOSPI | 3,528 | -0.08 | +0.02 | -0.19 | 45% | +0.34 | -0.60 | +0.66 | -1.60 | 42% |
| CB conversion / price adjustment | KOSDAQ | 7,256 | -0.08 | -0.18 | -0.47 | 43% | -0.61 | -1.67 | -2.27 | -5.19 | 35% |
| CB conversion / price adjustment | KOSPI | 720 | -0.13 | -0.47 | -0.42 | 41% | -1.57 | -1.79 | -4.97 | -5.62 | 32% |
| Share pledge that could change control | KOSDAQ | 335 | +0.17 | -0.78 | -0.75 | 38% | -1.74 | -2.26 | -3.90 | -5.53 | 34% |
| Debt guarantee / collateral for others | KOSDAQ | 876 | +0.18 | +0.07 | -0.25 | 45% | +0.19 | -0.85 | -0.56 | -2.14 | 42% |
| Debt guarantee / collateral for others | KOSPI | 2,096 | +0.00 | -0.09 | -0.20 | 46% | -0.44 | -0.82 | -1.69 | -2.60 | 38% |
| Earnings release date notice | KOSDAQ | 595 | +0.14 | +0.33 | +0.04 | 51% | +0.76 | -0.49 | +0.69 | -1.68 | 43% |
| Earnings release date notice | KOSPI | 1,909 | -0.04 | +0.16 | +0.01 | 50% | +0.28 | -0.22 | -0.67 | -1.68 | 44% |
| Governance / misc. (routine) | KOSDAQ | 13,795 | +0.29 | -0.19 | -0.33 | 44% | -0.02 | -0.69 | -0.21 | -2.38 | 41% |
| Governance / misc. (routine) | KOSPI | 15,535 | -0.07 | -0.21 | -0.24 | 45% | -0.13 | -0.67 | -2.07 | -2.83 | 38% |
| Insider / major-holder ownership report | KOSDAQ | 34,015 | +0.07 | -0.04 | -0.27 | 46% | -0.10 | -0.94 | -0.37 | -2.78 | 41% |
| Insider / major-holder ownership report | KOSPI | 23,869 | -0.05 | +0.02 | -0.10 | 48% | -0.30 | -0.63 | -1.57 | -2.13 | 41% |
| IR event | KOSDAQ | 4,460 | +0.46 | +0.34 | -0.07 | 49% | +0.78 | -0.43 | +0.87 | -1.74 | 44% |
| IR event | KOSPI | 6,151 | +0.00 | +0.03 | -0.12 | 48% | -0.11 | -0.45 | -1.05 | -1.98 | 42% |
| Other | KOSDAQ | 1,437 | -0.26 | -0.19 | -0.40 | 43% | -0.23 | -0.88 | -0.55 | -2.65 | 41% |
| Other | KOSPI | 3,332 | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.21 | 46% | -0.01 | -0.64 | -0.29 | -1.90 | 42% |
| Periodic report (annual/half/quarterly) | KOSDAQ | 23,234 | +0.09 | +0.12 | -0.12 | 48% | +0.33 | -0.28 | +0.65 | -1.92 | 42% |
| Periodic report (annual/half/quarterly) | KOSPI | 11,517 | -0.06 | -0.12 | -0.25 | 45% | -0.14 | -0.58 | -1.36 | -2.37 | 39% |
| Securities registration / prospectus | KOSDAQ | 3,796 | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.54 | 43% | -0.04 | -1.81 | -2.87 | -6.42 | 33% |
| Securities registration / prospectus | KOSPI | 11,286 | -0.03 | +0.02 | -0.08 | 48% | -0.08 | -0.23 | -0.56 | -0.90 | 45% |
How we calculate
Baseline (read this first): KOSPI: all listed stocks, every day, n=857,305: 1d median -0.2%, hit 45%; 20d median -2.5%, hit 38%. KOSDAQ: all listed stocks, every day, n=1,539,656: 1d median -0.3%, hit 44%; 20d median -2.6%, hit 40%. Because the KOSPI/KOSDAQ indices are cap-weighted and large caps led in 2025-26, the typical stock lagged the index. Compare each row with this baseline, not with zero.
By size bucket
Contract size vs. latest annual revenue; buyback/CB size vs. market cap the day before; rights offerings by method and new shares as % of existing.
| Filing type | Market | Cases | On the news (avg) | Next day (avg) | Next day (usual) | Next day: beat market | 5 days (avg) | 5 days (usual) | 20 days (avg) | 20 days (usual) | 20 days: beat market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus issue (stock dividend) - <0.5 new/share | KOSDAQ | 18 | +4.04 | +0.99 | -0.35 | 44% | +1.95 | +1.55 | +3.63 | -1.39 | 44% |
| Bonus issue (stock dividend) - >=1 new/share | KOSDAQ | 88 | +8.34 | +0.57 | +0.02 | 51% | +2.46 | +2.13 | +10.19 | -0.02 | 49% |
| Bonus issue (stock dividend) - <0.5 new/share | KOSPI | 19 | +0.90 | +2.00 | +0.57 | 68% | +3.62 | +1.89 | +1.27 | +1.58 | 63% |
| Share buyback decision - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 133 | +4.00 | +1.61 | +1.36 | 69% | +1.89 | +1.81 | +2.40 | +2.71 | 63% |
| Share buyback decision - <1% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 83 | +0.80 | +0.97 | +0.42 | 58% | +2.02 | +1.18 | +2.80 | +0.04 | 51% |
| Share buyback decision - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 121 | +7.00 | +1.32 | +1.39 | 68% | +4.37 | +4.37 | +4.36 | +4.07 | 61% |
| Share buyback decision - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 103 | +2.11 | +1.58 | +1.68 | 70% | +2.92 | +2.66 | +3.50 | +3.67 | 65% |
| Share buyback decision - <1% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 150 | +1.33 | +0.40 | +0.21 | 57% | -0.57 | -0.91 | -3.21 | -2.21 | 42% |
| Share buyback decision - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 41 | +8.66 | +0.23 | +0.90 | 63% | +3.92 | +4.57 | +2.47 | -0.58 | 47% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 338 | +2.18 | +0.87 | +0.70 | 60% | +1.74 | +1.57 | +2.98 | +2.40 | 58% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - <1% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 91 | +0.33 | +0.02 | -0.71 | 42% | +0.66 | +0.82 | +0.95 | -0.52 | 49% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 257 | +5.60 | +1.13 | +0.97 | 63% | +3.85 | +3.01 | +6.99 | +5.42 | 69% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 156 | +2.08 | +0.68 | +0.51 | 56% | +1.83 | +1.07 | +0.88 | +0.34 | 54% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - <1% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 77 | +0.12 | +0.38 | +0.05 | 51% | +1.05 | +0.29 | +1.26 | -0.99 | 45% |
| Treasury-stock trust contract - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 91 | +5.50 | +1.42 | +0.88 | 65% | +2.97 | +1.33 | +5.43 | +2.75 | 63% |
| BW/EB issuance - 5-15% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 49 | +0.70 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 49% | +0.12 | +0.65 | -1.75 | -4.73 | 37% |
| BW/EB issuance - <5% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 77 | +1.24 | +0.08 | -0.21 | 42% | -0.86 | -1.73 | -2.52 | -5.72 | 34% |
| BW/EB issuance - >=15% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 34 | -0.07 | -0.31 | +0.10 | 53% | +3.38 | -0.85 | +3.00 | -2.37 | 39% |
| BW/EB issuance - 5-15% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 32 | +0.35 | -0.79 | -1.21 | 38% | -2.17 | -2.94 | -6.36 | -7.84 | 22% |
| BW/EB issuance - <5% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 24 | -0.22 | -1.79 | -0.99 | 25% | +2.94 | +1.37 | -2.31 | -3.08 | 48% |
| Convertible bond issuance - 5-15% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 277 | +0.59 | -0.22 | -0.64 | 40% | -0.85 | -1.56 | -3.58 | -4.73 | 33% |
| Convertible bond issuance - <5% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 169 | +0.58 | -1.14 | -0.83 | 38% | -1.88 | -3.04 | -4.42 | -7.49 | 34% |
| Convertible bond issuance - >=15% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 168 | +1.26 | -0.07 | -0.66 | 40% | +2.08 | -1.38 | +3.07 | -4.17 | 41% |
| Convertible bond issuance - 5-15% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 44 | -0.27 | -0.73 | -0.61 | 34% | -1.61 | -2.53 | -7.65 | -5.47 | 36% |
| Convertible bond issuance - <5% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 30 | +0.39 | +0.39 | -0.23 | 47% | +0.27 | -1.34 | -2.31 | -4.80 | 33% |
| Convertible bond issuance - >=15% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 20 | +1.24 | +0.19 | -0.49 | 40% | -2.00 | -2.16 | -7.52 | -6.16 | 30% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) - third-party, 10-30% new shares | KOSDAQ | 94 | +6.86 | -1.07 | -0.84 | 43% | +0.77 | -2.79 | +0.29 | -3.44 | 43% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) - third-party, <10% new shares | KOSDAQ | 222 | +2.10 | -1.25 | -1.16 | 39% | -0.68 | -2.32 | -0.74 | -4.12 | 40% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) - third-party, >=30% new shares | KOSDAQ | 39 | +15.03 | -2.66 | -1.14 | 38% | -5.32 | -5.41 | -6.89 | -13.77 | 22% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) - third-party, 10-30% new shares | KOSPI | 19 | +6.37 | -1.17 | -1.56 | 32% | -0.09 | -1.88 | -10.68 | -10.84 | 26% |
| Rights offering (paid-in capital increase) - third-party, <10% new shares | KOSPI | 56 | -0.47 | +0.84 | -0.66 | 38% | -0.68 | -1.99 | -1.47 | -3.76 | 31% |
| Single sales/supply contract - 10-20% of revenue | KOSDAQ | 1,285 | +1.55 | -0.34 | -0.71 | 39% | -0.28 | -1.44 | -1.00 | -3.78 | 36% |
| Single sales/supply contract - 20-50% of revenue | KOSDAQ | 741 | +2.15 | -0.86 | -1.08 | 37% | -0.92 | -2.15 | -1.90 | -4.58 | 36% |
| Single sales/supply contract - <10% of revenue | KOSDAQ | 598 | +0.94 | -0.01 | -0.30 | 44% | -0.78 | -1.66 | -0.55 | -2.60 | 40% |
| Single sales/supply contract - >=50% of revenue | KOSDAQ | 313 | +4.82 | -1.41 | -1.71 | 31% | -1.93 | -3.53 | -1.41 | -6.21 | 35% |
| Single sales/supply contract - 10-20% of revenue | KOSPI | 553 | +0.88 | -0.08 | -0.18 | 45% | -1.12 | -1.39 | -2.43 | -2.92 | 42% |
| Single sales/supply contract - 20-50% of revenue | KOSPI | 294 | +1.58 | -0.63 | -0.88 | 35% | +0.09 | -0.93 | +0.19 | -2.95 | 38% |
| Single sales/supply contract - <10% of revenue | KOSPI | 2,043 | +0.57 | -0.13 | -0.32 | 44% | -0.18 | -0.91 | -0.36 | -2.06 | 41% |
| Single sales/supply contract - >=50% of revenue | KOSPI | 85 | +3.58 | -1.66 | -1.91 | 29% | -1.83 | -3.07 | -1.83 | -5.30 | 33% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 168 | +0.12 | -0.21 | -0.19 | 43% | -0.52 | -1.72 | -3.36 | -5.81 | 33% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - <1% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 613 | +0.06 | -0.19 | -0.40 | 45% | -0.38 | -1.07 | -0.46 | -3.15 | 38% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSDAQ | 132 | +0.21 | -1.39 | -0.96 | 32% | -2.59 | -2.50 | -3.95 | -6.64 | 31% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - 1-3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 69 | -0.31 | -0.81 | -0.82 | 33% | -2.09 | -2.59 | -7.45 | -8.08 | 31% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - <1% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 410 | +0.09 | -0.54 | -0.46 | 42% | -1.39 | -1.19 | -3.06 | -3.14 | 37% |
| Treasury-stock disposal - >=3% of mkt cap | KOSPI | 71 | -0.06 | -1.14 | -0.48 | 35% | -1.75 | -2.22 | -9.09 | -8.22 | 23% |
How returns are measured
- Filed before 09:00 -> entry at that day's open; filed 09:00-15:29 -> entry at that day's close; filed 15:30 or later, on a holiday, or time unknown -> entry at the next trading day's open.
- 'Announcement move' = from the last close before the news to the entry price (not achievable for a reader). 1d/5d/20d = from entry to the close 1/5/20 sessions later.
- Prices adjusted for splits, bonus issues and rights. Delisted and halted names are included (no survivorship filter); one event per stock/type/day; amended filings are excluded.
- Averages are affected by outliers; look at the median and hit rate too. Overlapping events (e.g. a contract and an earnings release on the same day) are not separated.
Download: CSV · CSV (bucket)
Per-filing estimates: method and out-of-sample validation
How we calculate
Each digest card shows (1) similar past cases: the 100 past filings of the same type and market whose deal size, market cap, prior 5- and 20-day move vs. the index, 20-day volatility and trading value were closest; (2) a model estimate of the chance of beating the index after 1 and 5 sessions (regularised logistic regression on filing type x market, size bucket, market-cap bucket, filing time and the same price features; inputs clipped to the training range; market-trend inputs left out on purpose); (3) the company's own past filings of the same type. Only information available when the filing was published is used: prices up to the last close before the news.
Validation is walk-forward only: a model is trained on filings whose 20-day outcome was complete at least 35 days before each test quarter, then tested on that quarter (expanding window, 9 quarters, 2024Q3 to 2026Q3); a single split trained on 2023-24 and tested on 2025-26 gave similar results. AUC 0.5 = no ranking skill. Results by half-year and by market regime are shown, not only pooled.
| Horizon | Test period / regime | Cases | Beat rate | AUC type avg | AUC model | AUC similar cases | Within-type AUC model | Brier type avg | Brier model | Top-bottom quintile, type avg (pts) | Top-bottom quintile, model (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | pooled | 35,770 | 42% | 0.532 | 0.547 | 0.536 | 0.521 | 0.2428 | 0.2422 | +8.3 | +11.8 |
| 1d | 2024H2 | 6,086 | 46% | 0.540 | 0.566 | 0.545 | 0.545 | 0.2459 | 0.2442 | +13.1 | +17.7 |
| 1d | 2025H1 | 8,563 | 43% | 0.525 | 0.540 | 0.526 | 0.526 | 0.2451 | 0.2445 | +5.5 | +8.4 |
| 1d | 2025H2 | 6,305 | 40% | 0.531 | 0.532 | 0.534 | 0.500 | 0.2391 | 0.2399 | +8.3 | +6.0 |
| 1d | 2026H1 | 11,002 | 41% | 0.532 | 0.547 | 0.535 | 0.524 | 0.2407 | 0.2400 | +8.5 | +12.7 |
| 1d | 2026H2 | 3,814 | 44% | 0.554 | 0.562 | 0.554 | 0.535 | 0.2446 | 0.2441 | +11.7 | +13.9 |
| 1d | index 20d -5..+5% | 16,895 | 43% | 0.533 | 0.544 | 0.537 | 0.518 | 0.2433 | 0.2430 | +9.6 | +10.7 |
| 1d | index 20d < -5% | 5,714 | 46% | 0.559 | 0.582 | 0.564 | 0.547 | 0.2458 | 0.2438 | +13.9 | +21.4 |
| 1d | index 20d > +5% | 13,161 | 40% | 0.520 | 0.534 | 0.520 | 0.522 | 0.2408 | 0.2405 | +4.4 | +8.4 |
| 5d | pooled | 35,770 | 41% | 0.527 | 0.536 | 0.529 | 0.506 | 0.2409 | 0.2404 | +7.0 | +8.7 |
| 5d | 2024H2 | 6,086 | 45% | 0.533 | 0.551 | 0.539 | 0.514 | 0.2472 | 0.2457 | +8.9 | +13.6 |
| 5d | 2025H1 | 8,563 | 43% | 0.522 | 0.522 | 0.517 | 0.507 | 0.2477 | 0.2474 | +3.8 | +5.1 |
| 5d | 2025H2 | 6,305 | 36% | 0.511 | 0.518 | 0.520 | 0.502 | 0.2327 | 0.2336 | +2.5 | +6.0 |
| 5d | 2026H1 | 11,002 | 39% | 0.547 | 0.559 | 0.544 | 0.539 | 0.2361 | 0.2354 | +13.6 | +14.5 |
| 5d | 2026H2 | 3,814 | 43% | 0.541 | 0.556 | 0.544 | 0.534 | 0.2432 | 0.2422 | +4.7 | +14.4 |
| 5d | index 20d -5..+5% | 16,895 | 41% | 0.528 | 0.536 | 0.533 | 0.507 | 0.2413 | 0.2410 | +6.5 | +8.8 |
| 5d | index 20d < -5% | 5,714 | 45% | 0.570 | 0.579 | 0.564 | 0.530 | 0.2439 | 0.2425 | +18.2 | +19.5 |
| 5d | index 20d > +5% | 13,161 | 39% | 0.503 | 0.514 | 0.504 | 0.502 | 0.2391 | 0.2388 | +1.2 | +2.7 |
| 20d | pooled | 35,180 | 39% | 0.492 | 0.507 | 0.496 | 0.495 | 0.2421 | 0.2416 | -3.7 | +1.9 |
| 20d | 2024H2 | 6,086 | 44% | 0.551 | 0.564 | 0.554 | 0.525 | 0.2475 | 0.2462 | +12.5 | +15.9 |
| 20d | 2025H1 | 8,563 | 47% | 0.474 | 0.504 | 0.480 | 0.552 | 0.2673 | 0.2641 | -4.6 | +2.2 |
| 20d | 2025H2 | 6,305 | 29% | 0.526 | 0.532 | 0.511 | 0.513 | 0.2180 | 0.2213 | +3.1 | +7.1 |
| 20d | 2026H1 | 11,002 | 36% | 0.493 | 0.506 | 0.490 | 0.520 | 0.2332 | 0.2333 | -7.1 | +2.2 |
| 20d | 2026H2 | 3,224 | 41% | 0.531 | 0.547 | 0.532 | 0.531 | 0.2423 | 0.2414 | +4.2 | +9.8 |
| 20d | index 20d -5..+5% | 16,339 | 41% | 0.491 | 0.502 | 0.496 | 0.505 | 0.2469 | 0.2466 | -2.7 | +0.2 |
| 20d | index 20d < -5% | 5,680 | 44% | 0.530 | 0.542 | 0.536 | 0.500 | 0.2481 | 0.2468 | +9.2 | +9.9 |
| 20d | index 20d > +5% | 13,161 | 35% | 0.478 | 0.499 | 0.477 | 0.506 | 0.2336 | 0.2332 | -8.5 | +0.3 |
Reading this honestly. Next day: the model ranks filings a little better than the type average in 4 of 5 half-years (AUC about 0.53-0.57 vs. 0.53-0.55), and its top fifth beat the index about 12 points more often than its bottom fifth; within one filing type the ranking skill is small (AUC about 0.52). That is a weak edge. At 5 days it is mixed (better in 2024H2 and 2026, no better in 2025). At 20 days the ranking within each half-year is only weakly positive, the pooled within-type AUC is about 0.50 and the probabilities are badly calibrated (lowest tenth predicted 27%, actual 39%), so no 20-day probability is shown. All models rank better in falling markets (index down more than 5% over 20 sessions), but those cases come mostly from three episodes (Aug 2024, Mar 2026, Jul-Aug 2026), so we do not use market-trend inputs.
For information only, not investment advice. Data may be delayed or inaccurate. Full disclaimer → Data: OpenDART (FSS), stock prices: official previous-day close from the Financial Services Commission (data.go.kr) and FinanceData/marcap history, index data via FinanceDataReader, FX: ECB reference rates, crypto data from Upbit, Bithumb and Binance public APIs.
Market data not licensed for redistribution.
© Crypvu · Crypto market view
Market data not licensed for redistribution.
© Crypvu · Crypto market view